Housing Affordability Is a Zero-Sum Game
By: J. David Chapman/February 20, 2026
A recent Wall Street Journal article made a blunt observation about the American housing market. To make homes affordable again someone has to lose. That sentence explains why housing policy has become one of the most difficult challenges facing the country.
Young adults need prices to fall to buy their first home. Existing homeowners want prices to stay high because their house is their largest asset. Policymakers want to help renters without angering owners. Builders want demand without flooding the market. Every solution benefits one group and disadvantages another. Housing has become a zero-sum game.
The Wall Street Journal laid out the math. To return affordability to 2019 levels one of three things must happen. Household incomes must rise dramatically. Mortgage rates must fall to historic lows. Or home prices must drop roughly one third. None of these outcomes is likely soon. And a large price correction would wipe out trillions in household wealth and chill the broader economy.
Yet frustration among young adults is real. Homeownership remains the primary path to middle class wealth. When entry prices rise faster than incomes an entire generation risks being locked out. That is not only an economic issue. It is a social one.
Oklahoma sits in a different position than many states. We have land. We have manageable construction costs. Yet we still feel affordability pressure. Oklahoma City and Edmond have seen strong price appreciation. Rents have followed. First time buyers feel squeezed. At the same time long-term homeowners have gained significant equity.
The difference is that Oklahoma can still grow supply without extreme disruption. Local zoning, permitting, and infrastructure decisions determine how quickly housing comes online. This is where real affordability policy lives. Not in Washington.
Incremental housing supply is the sustainable answer. Small lot homes. Townhomes. Missing middle development. Infill near jobs and services. These add housing gradually while protecting neighborhood stability and home values.
Ironically many communities resist exactly these solutions to protect property values. Over time that resistance is what pushes prices higher and locks out the next generation.
There is no painless fix. But Oklahoma has the opportunity to get ahead of the problem. If we plan for growth rather than fight it, we can keep homeownership within reach without eroding the value homeowners have worked so hard to build.
Dr. J. David Chapman is the Chair of Finance and Professor of Real Estate at The University of Central Oklahoma (jchapman7@uco.edu)